25 / 26 Tour de Season Attendance Prediction

[railwaysteve]

This will be the main thread for the Gasroom’s own 25 / 26 Attendance Prediction Competition. The results after each game will be posted on this thread.

As in previous seasons the game is to predict the total attendance for each of Wycombe’s League games. Each person gets a score for each match which is exactly the number that their prediction misses the actual attendance. So the lower your score the better you are doing.

To Win - Best ten predictions count:
The competition score is the average of predictions and there is plenty of opportunity to discard wayward predictions as the season progresses. When each person has reached ten predictions only their best ten predictions count and wayward predictions are gradually discounted. For the early part of the season over the first twenty matches your competition score is the average of roughly half of the number of matches played irrespective of the number of predictions made.

Who can play
Anyone is more than welcome to play. I don’t have a problem with individuals predicting for a single match or for half a season. In the first case you could recieve plaudits for the best prediction of that match but cannot win the overall competition and in the second case it is unlikely that you will win the overall competition but it is possible.

To make it more interesting
It amuses me, and maybe others, to have three measures for the crowd at each match. If everyone makes a prediction for the total crowd and then the away crowd, I, or rather the Google spreadsheet, can work out who was closest to the away crowd and the home crowd as well as the Total Crowd - which will count towards the season long competition.

So my preferred format for predictions is
Total Crowd: xxxx or xxxxx
Away Crowd : yyyy or yyy or maybe even yy.

Humour is always appreciated.

A Personal note:
For those who enjoy / are contemplating this competition I wholeheartedly recommend @DevC’s most excellent Score Prediction Competion elsewhere on the famous gasroom. @DevC very responsibly runs it as a charity competition and asks for a donation to a very worthy cause - the Samaritans.
After a scare and some chemotherapy I decided to use this platform to encourage potential competitors to seek a test for prostate cancer. The earlier it is detected the better are your chances and my view is that every Wycombe supporter is precious. Could I ask that those for whom such a test would be impossible or not necessary encourage someone important to them to take or ask for a test?

COMPETITION RULES

Deadline
All entries for each match close 1 hour before kick off.

Sell Outs
Entries close for the main competition if once I or @railwaybeth (my daughter) make a post after both clubs have declared a sell out. Any entries after that will be entered on the match spreadsheet but will not count in the season long competition.

Partial Sell Outs - the ‘pnl’ Rule
If one club declares a sell out some people will have a prediction of one set of supporters which is obviously wrong. As this first happened in a game against Oxford where there are three sides to every story people were allowed to alter their prediction, but only to change Oxford supporters into Wycombe supporters without altering the total. This seemed such a good rule that I have kept it ever since. Otherwise this rule holds:

The No Alterations Rule
The only exception is above. It is very easy for me to make mistakes and changing predictions would only encourage me.

Disputed Attendance Rule
It does happen occasionally that the ground announcer says something different to an official report. If so I use as official the figures published by the BBC. If they don’t publish the figures I will use the figures published by Paul Lewis the original Gasman on “Chairboys on the Net”.

A final note
I will be on holiday in mid September - Cambridge to Lisbon by rail is planned, @railwaybeth (my highly competent daughter) may well make some of the posts during this time and possibly some game outcomes could and competition updates may wait until I return.

Please watch out for the Bradford away prediction thread in Match Day section.
Happy predicting to all.

[railwaysteve]

After the Stevenage Away Game - Match 6strong text

Here is the table as it was after six matches, when everyone’s score was made up of their best three predictions so far.

Top 35 as there were 35 with at least 3 predictions at that time.

Many congratulations to @DevC the early leader and to @a40 with the closest prediction on record so far this season.
There is a round of applause please for @Alexo for the beyond the deadline for the Stevenage game prediction which missed by just two.

I plan to add the games in pairs until I reach the present day.

[railwaysteve]

After the Mansfield home and Peterborough Away Games
Matches 7 and 8

Many congratulations to @DevC who retained the postion at the top of the Leaderboard.
Several forecasters were close for the Manslield home game but only @Half_Man_Half_Swan was within a hundred for the Posh away game.
Belated congratulations to @Forestblue and @FromeBlue for their substantial jumps up the table and to @our_frank for becoming the challenger in second.
Many congratulations to @a40 who has the best recorded single prediction of the season so far.
It was early days when these games were completed and indeed it is still early days now.

[railwaysteve]

After the Northampton home game and the Wimbledon away Games
Matches 9 and 10

Two games included on this occasion, hopefully for the last occasion this season and it brings the competition up to date except for today’s match against Barnsley.

The first thing for saying is many congratulations to @DevC indeed for taking a commanding early control of this competition. The Wimbledon game was a new personal best and a new best for the competition as a whole this season - a miss of just five people. I reckon that @DevC’s lead is equivalent to about 8 points. He certainly cannot be caught over the next two games. Tremendous predicting!

@our_frank held onto 2nd place - congratulations due as most places changed hands.
Congratulations to @thecatwwfc who leapt up from 15th to 5th over the two games. Congratulations also for giant leaps to @PJS and @Robin, @bookertease and @MindlessDrugHoover and to @LDF.

The Wimbledon game provided 11 new personal bests in the top 35 and the Northampton game just 2.

I will try and sort the outcomes from today’s game against Barnsley as soon as possible.

[Commoner]

Thanks @railwaysteve am I missing from the table because of number of predictions?

Think I’ve only done 5 after today.

[railwaysteve]

@Commoner - that is true - done with a little haste so I didn’t include an extra line to show both yourself and @wwfcblue on 4 predictions. Your score looks quite respectable from just 5 predictions and you will show up on the Leaderboard as soon as it is done.

[Commoner]

Thanks @railwaysteve i wasn’t 100% sure!

[railwaysteve]

After the Barnsley Home Game - Match 11

Up to date at last. A bit of self created pressure to have this done so mistakes are possible, I did find a couple which were obvious. If you do think you have found one please let me know, I would rather these tables told the truth.

Many congratulations to @DevC who, as expected still holds a sizeable lead at the top of the Leaderboard.

Many congratulations to @Monza - there is a handle with style - who landed a score of just one - a score which is now the best of the season so far and could possibly stay as the best individual prediction all season.

I think on this occasion many congratulations are due to a third forecaster: to @our_frank in second on the Leaderboard, who has taken a big bite out of @DevC lead. My back of the envelope reckoning says it has gone from 8 points to 5 points. @DevC still cannot be caught in a single game though.

In contrast the actual performance by our beloved team during almost all the match, the forecast unit had a brave results all over the place.

Congratulations to @Commoner who pulled off a rare achievement eleven games in - moving from outside the table with no score to 13th in the top half of the table.

Congratulations to @wwfcblue who almost pulled off the same feat - moving from bottom of the lower table to top and missing crossing the border by the narrowest of margins. Close examination of the scores of @BSE in 18th and @wwfcblue in 19th show that they are separated by just a single predicted person.

Congratulations to @Ryan_W_Kirkby; @bookertease; @SmiroludyBlue, @Twizz and @Glenactico who with @Monza all recorded new personal best predictions for the season.

Congratulations again to @Ryan_W_Kirkby; to @Bayo; again to @bookertease and to @LDF - all who reached their highest position on the Leaderboard this season so far. @Monza, @Commoner and @wwfcblue also achieved this feat.

@our_frank and @a40 already have sub 100 averages and @DevC is already sub 50. @williwycombe is very close indeed to sub 100, although keeping a sub anything score is not guaranteed until after Match 20 when the Leaderboard will become permanently based on each person’s best ten predictions.

Looking to the Future:

After Match 12 - the Wigan game - it will the best six which count, rather than the five counting in this table. The “Score to beat to improve” column shows each Forecasters current 6th best score, which will be added in if their Wigan game score does not beat it.
The colouring in this column is just by size of this number - the darker the green the bigger the penalty if the number is added in and the bigger the improvement if it is a match where the number could be discarded.

Here is the portion of the table which is normally not published, which shows those Forecasters who have scores in the bank but not enough predictions to produce a score.
Forecasters are in ordered by number of predictions and then alphabetically.

Anyone is welcome to have a go.

Happy predicting.

al

[railwaysteve]

After the Wigan (away) game - Match 12

The Wigan game itself did not produce many changes. I look at the Leaderboard after adding in the Wigan game predictions and before adding in the 6th best scores and the only change from the Barnsley Leaderboard was @Mandown and @Alexo changing places and even that change did not survive the 6th best predictions being added in.

The big leaps up the table by @BSE and @Glenactico are entirely due to the quality of their 6th best scores being added in on the 12th game of the season. This despite @Glenactico being Forecaster of the Week for the Wigan game - the 323 from @Glenactico for the Wigan gane now sits as a very respectable personal 7th best for the season so far.

So congratulations to @DevC who stays at the top of the Leaderboard and to @Monza who retains the accolade due to the best single prediction for the season so far.

Congratulations to @bookertease who reached a highest position in the table so far this season after this match.

Finally a message to @Half_Man_Half_Swan - keep predicting - a forecast as close as yours for the Peterborough away game would halve your score.

Reminder to all who haven’t predicted the attendance at the Blackpool game yet - the deadline for predictions to count on here is 2pm. I should be travelling up there by train and wifi permitting will have time available to do last minute updates.

[micra]

2pm tomorrow of course in case anyone panicked for more than the twenty seconds I went through! I’m well used to hearing “poor old soul (at least I think it’s soul) he doesn’t know what day of the week it is”.

Whilst in a flippant frame of mind (and out of sheer jealousy because he’s doing better than me) I have a theory that those of a glass half empty tendency - eg @bookertease - have a bit of an advantage this season when it comes to predicting home gates!

[railwaysteve]

After the Blackpool Away Game - Match 13

A good week for predicting so lots of congratulations are in order.

Firstly many congratulations to @DevC who maintains a tidy lead at the top of the Leaderboard. @a40, @Ryan_W_Kirkby and @williwycombe all moved closer, all joining the current sub 100 club. @our_frank in 2nd place also moved closer with what looks like a 4 point gap to me.

@DevC still cannot be caught in a single game. He gained 113 this match, a much improved personal 7th best score. 7th best scores will count for everyone after our 14th game on Saturday if they are not improved on with that game prediction.

Many congratulations also to @Monza who has the best individual prediction of the season so far.

Congratulations to @williwycombe; @silverfox; myself; @bookertease; @Glenactico; @Ohandybaird and @Username123 who all recorded new personal best predictions for the season so far.

Congratulations to @Ryan_W_Kirkby; @Bayo; @silverfox and @Twizz who all reached new heights on the Leaderboard and congratulations again to @silverfox and to @Commoner who both moved five or more places up the table.

Happy and Accurate predicting for the Huddersfield Quid a Kid event on Saturday.

[railwaysteve]

After the Huddersfield Home Game - Match 14

Many congratulations to @DevC, who has what looks to me to be a 4 points and a better goal difference lead over the chasing pair of @a40 and @our_frank who have swapped places this week, the gap is narrow, a change of just 4 predicted people would put them level.

Congratualtions to @a40 for reaching 2nd in the table, highest position so far this season. Congratulations to the other sharp forecasters who also achieved their highest position - @silverfox, @bookertease (with the totally odd sequential palindrome), @Commoner and @SmiroludyBlue. Congratulations for giant leaps up the Leaderboard to @FromeBlue and to both @Commoner and @bookertease again.

It was a good week for us in general and unsurprisingly there are congratulations for new personal best predictions for the season so far. They go to Forecaster of the Week @NewburyWanderer, to @MindlessDrugHoover and to @MFHBlue.

Finally there are many congratulations to @Monza poised in 30th position in this table, but with this season’s best prediction so far.

What does the Future hold -

A note for @Loakes who has 6 predictions and will appear in the main table if they make a prediction for the next league game when it will still be best seven predictions which count for scores on here.

The next league fixture is not until 12:30 on November 8th - home to Orient. I will probably put that Prediction thread soon but not predict myself until after the Cup games. Which brings me to the topic of the magic of the cup - I am minded to put a thread for tomorrow night’s game against Fulham as a one off and see if people use it and then perhaps one for Plynouth at home on Saturday.

[our_frank]

that would be great, @railwaysteve, although I’m sure we were all prepared for you to have some doubtless welcome time off.

[DevC]

Posted in error

[railwaysteve]

After the Leyton Orient Home Game - Match 15

Not a bad week at all. That said the top six remain unchanged in order with four of the six improved their scores.

Many congratulations to @Monza who still has the best individual prediction so far this year with the forecast for the Barnsley home game.
Many congratulations again to @DevC who leads the table with the best average of each person’s best seven predictions so far this season.

Eighth best predictions will count after Saturday’s game at Port Vale - our Match 16 in the League. @DevC has the best 8th best prediction of all of us by some distance and I reckon even an unimagineably wide prediction would only add about 6 points to the number is his score column. If @a40 in second finds a perfect prediction then he would knock off an eighth of his score - which would still leave @DevC with a lead of 53 ish to 65 ish. Looks to me like a lead in football terms of 7 points and a superior goal difference, which is a remarkable lead at this stage of the season.

Congratulations this week to @bookertease in 7th and @Commoner now in 8th, both now in their highest positions on the Leaderboard yet this season.
Congratulations also to @Bayo in 9th and @Erroll_Sims in 10th who both recorded their personal best predictions of the season so far. That group 7th to 10th is really tight as just 26 predicted persons span the group from @bookertease to @Erroll_Sims.

Congratulations to @FromeBlue for a great leap up the table; congratulations to @wwfcblue for a new highest place in the table and congratulations to @LDF for a new personal best prediction for the season and a great leap upwards in the table.

Congratulations to @Ohandybaird and @Loakes who also both recorded new personal best predictions.
@Loakes joins the table with a seventh prediction so has the ‘8th prediction column’ is awaiting an entry for Saturday’s game.

All those at the far end of the table are in touch with the rest of the table to a greater extent than the chasing group at the top are in with @DevC.

Happy predicting to all. I have my ticket for Port Vale and will hope the trains will be kinder than they have been for recent away games.

[railwaysteve]

After the Port Vale Away Game - Match 16

Match 16 so 8th best predictions are counting for the first time,

Congratulations to Forecaster of the Week @ChipsintheAdams who moved up from 15th to 10th and to @glasstotallyfull who moved up from 27th to 22nd. This pair jointly put in the biggest shifts of the week.

Congratulations to @Bayo who moved up from 9th to 6th and reached a personal highest position on the Leaderboard so far this season.

Of course many congratulations to @DevC; the scores are different but the lead at the top remains commanding.
Of course too. many congratulations to @Monza who has the best single prediction of the season so far and it is one which will be difficult to beat.

Lincoln at home up next at 3pm on Saturday. The thread should be up during the Italy v Norway game tonight, but I might leave my own prediction until the weather forecast is a bit more reliable. At least there are direct trains between Marylebone and High Wycombe next weekend, but the main line route for Kings Cross from Lincoln is blocked for Engineering work south of Peterborough and so any Imps coming by train will have to take a long way round via Nottingham into St Pancras.

[railwaysteve]

After the Lincoln Home Game - Match 17

There were really a lot of close scores this week so there is a fair bit to talk about.

Almost everyone moved in the table. One forecasters who is exceptional in this regard is @DevC who retains top spot with a clear lead. Many congratulations to @DevC. Maintaining football form is perhaps as difficult as acquiring it in the first place, and maybe more difficult in this game because the better your group of ‘best scores’ the more difficult it becomes to improve them. For the Lincoln game @DevC scored 76 - a really good score - for him it was a new 8th best match score just making into his average for the overall score. Even with a match score of 76 his overall score went up slightly, but by about half as much as it would have done. Once again many congratulations for the consistency.

The gap to the chasing group remains about the same in numerical terms and I think about the same in practical terms, @DevC cannot be caught in a single match but at least theoretically can be over two.

There are congratulations for forecasters who have joined the chasing group or moved up inside the chasing group, especially for @williwycombe who now sits in second place, a personal highspot for the season so far. Congratulations also for reaching personal best positions to @Bayo in 5th and @bookertease in 6th.

Joint Forecaster of the Week @bookertease is the highest placed forecaster in a sizeable group/to have recorded a new personal best forecast for the Lincoln home game with a match score of 12. Congratulations again @bookertease. The same new personal best congratualtions go to the other Joint Forecaster of the Week @Forestblue and also to @Glenactico, @wwfcblue, @MFHBlue and @Alexo. With the aid of the spreadsheet I did a little research and only the Wimbledon away game has more personal bests than this Lincoln home game with the six mentioned above.

Many congratulations for the best individual score of the season so far again go to @Monza

Becasue so many forecasters had good scores nobody moved five or more places. So honourable mentions for all those that moved four places upwards - @Erroll_Sims, @FromeBlue @MindlessDrugHoover and @Glenactico .

That’s it! Rotherham thread up today hopefully - as it is the 18th match, Forecasers’ 9th best predictions will be counting for the first time on that Leaderboard.

Congratulations to anyone who has read this far!

[railwaysteve]

After the Rotherham Away Game - Match 18

Ninth best scores counting for the first time this season.

Many congratulation to @DevC who retains a substantial lead at the top of the table.

There was a flurry of activity near the top of the Leaderboard, several of the current inhabitants of that zone had were on form for predicting the crowd at Rotherham. @a40, 2nd closest for the Rotherham match with a new 5th best personal prediction of 70 climbed to second place and @our_frank, Forecaster of the Week, with a new 3rd best of 39 climbed to 3rd.

Congratulations are due to @ChipsintheAdams, 4th closest for Rotherhan away, [146 - new personal 7th best] which was responsible for a rise to a personal highspot for the seaason of 5th on the Leaderboard. @ChipsintheAdams was the only forecaster to achieve there highest position in the table this match,

There is a mention for @williwycombe who dropped to a close 4th on the Leaderboard, but who also recorded a ‘scoring score’ at Rotherham, being the 6th closest on the day with a respectable miss of 210. In fact this is a new 9th best score for the season for him. His previous 9th best was 212, so the effect on the Leaderboard scoreone was only marginal, hence the changing places. It is tough near the top this week.

I have mentioned already those who were first - @our_four_f, second, fourth and sixth best forecasters for Rotherham away in what is pretty much a standard write up. The really surprising bit comes next.

Many congratulations go as usual to the Forecaster with the best individual forecaster of the season so far - that is @Monza who was 5th closest for Rotherham away with 201, a personal 3rd best of the season so far after two single digit misses! The 201 was sufficient to move up one place on the Leaderboard to 31st and within reach of a whole bunch of people with Leaderboard scores in the 200s.

And finally to complete the top six, congratulations go to our guest star @BradtheMiller who was third on the day and the only person to record a new personal best for the season.

[williwycombe]

Super competitive. Will be tough getting near @DevC.

[railwaysteve]

After the Plymouth Home Game - Match 19

Many congratulations to @DevC who retains prime position at the top of the Leaderboard with so far as I can tell is an increased lead. The spreadsheet hasn’t done the precise calculations and I certainly haven’t but I reckon he can’t be caught over the next two games, even if his score is outside this current 10th best of 113 for both games. Looks to me like a seven point lead approaching Christmas. There are still challenges / talking points - can he keep up the form and when will he break the sub 50 average this year. Also 10th best predictions count for the first time for Burton and as usual from this point on it is the best ten predictions which count. It is possible that DevC can reach this distance marker with the remarkable achievement of half of his predictions being within one hundred of the actual attendance.

Many congratulations to @Monza who still has the closest single prediction of the season this year despite @wwfcblue coming very close with a score of just three. Congratulations for a new personal best of the season so far to @wwfcblue and also to @Twizz and @OxfordBlue.

Congratulations to the two with giant leaps up the table this week - to @Commoner and @wwfcblue who were also the only two this week to record new personal highpoints on the Leaderboard for the season.

The attendance prediction thread for Burton is already up. Happy predicting.