Data for Analysis of the Run In - Attendance Prediction
Here is a presentation of the current ‘Best ten Predictions’ for @DevC and those in the closest chasing bunch.
Everyone in the chart below would catch @DevC with two perfect predictions over the next two matches, so long as @DevC was further away than 69 for both.
The highlights in blue shows who has the best prediction in each column.
The highlights in yellow are the numbers over a hundred.
The column at the end is the actual score, the one which counts in the competition.
The three columns to the lift of that are for the averages of each person’s 5 best predictions, 6 best predictions and 7 best predictions. We are currently somewhere between 6/10ths and 7/10ths through the season, 63% - very close to two thirds of the way.
There is an argument that if people repeat their form of the first two thirds of the season, a reasonable good of their final score would be somewhere between their current ‘best 6 average’ and ‘best 7 average’.
Single digit scores are obviously the best at reducing a forecasters Leaderboard score - they all count as less than one towards it. However they aren’t easy to obtain. There have been a total of 15 so far this season, six of those are in the chart above and only @LDF, @Monza and @NewburyWanderer have two. I think recent games have produced more than their fair share
A single really good prediction would alter the chart and the Leaderboard substantilally and two by the same forecaster would change it dramatically.
I can see routes upwards for all of the chasing six. It is true that the ‘best five’ scores are fairly comparable - indeed they are identical for @wwfcblue and @DevC. Also @DevC does not have a monopoly of the very close and single digit scores.
My conclusion is that @DevC has a commanding but not unassailable lead. I reckon any one of the chasing bunch of six would be close if out of the remaining seventeen games, they record scores that are 60 or less, if out of those five a couple of them are single digit or close to that.
For the Mere Mortals agmonst us:
@bookertease showed last match that it is possible to leap seven places up the table to be ‘Wycombe distance’ from tne critical places and @micra’s form can vary like the weather, a brilliant spell in the spring would consolidate his handful of close predictions.
@Monza can only be beaten to the best individual prediction by a spot on forecast, and they are always possible.
My own target is to try and finish in the top half of the Leaderboard and have a sub 100 score before the games at the end of the season start to become less predictable - as Wyombe climb the table and the possibility of reaching the playoffs increases. 
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Happy predicting to all.
