25 / 26 Tour de Season Attendance Prediction

[railwaysteve]

Anyone who has looked at the recently reappeared Stockport (home) attendance thread will know that @wwfcblue queried a discrepancy after I published some of the underlying data for the top seven in the current Tour de Season competition.

I have spent some time looking and I am confident that there was a mistake made back then and that I know exactly what it was.
It is a small slip but does some implications.

What Happened:

For the Stockport game and only for the Stockport game when I transferred the data from the Match Day Spreadsheet to the Tour de Season spreadsheet the whole column was misaligned by one cell so that forecasters were credited with the score of the person above them in the table.

So in fact I myself benefitted from a score which should have belonged to @PJS, poor @robin received the score that should have belonged to me and so on.

The mistake that I feel worst about is that @FromeBlue was credited with a score of 57 which should have belonged to @Monza = if I had been sharper I would have spotted this because @FromeBlue didn’t predict until the 4th match.

@wwfcblue spotted that he had @williwycombe’s score of 90 and deserves loads of credit for both spotting it and then saying as it is to his disadvantage in the overall competition.

The affected scores for the Stockport game are highghted in pale red. Anyone who predicted the first game of the season and whose handle is earlier in the alphabet has an unaffected score.

Below is how the spreadsheet looks when it has been corrected…..

An Apology and Could it Happen Again?

I have had a look and it does make some siglogilognificant changes to the Leaderboard. I apologise to everybody because it was my mistake. I want to say sorry to people who have lost places on the Leaderboard as a consequence, particularly to @FromeBlue, @Ryan_W_Kirkby, @SmiroludyBlue and @silverfox who have lost ‘score’ and I believe places on the Leaderboard. If ahyohe wants an explanation of what happened to their particular score I am happy to do that.

There are few absolute guaratnees in this life but I am pretty sure that it can’t happen again. I have been checking the unique number identifies for most of the season whenever I transfer data between spreadsneets and the first four weeks were added and published at one go, when they are added a match at a time it is much more transparent and I am confident the error would be spotted..

What it means:

The revised Leaderboard below to which I will add the Doncaster outcomes -

Scores highlighted in green are those that can have altered and the usual up and down arrows apply.

I am slightly relieved that most of the big changes have happened in tight areas of the Leaderbord so it is possible to recover very quickly.

[DevC]

My old grandma always used to say “ if you are going to make an error, you might as well make sure it’s a siglogilognificant one….”
These things happen mate. Nothing to worry about.

[wwfcblue]

@railwaysteve

…t is much more transparent and I am confident the error would be spotted..What it means:The revised Leaderboard below to which I will add the Doncaster outcomes -Scores highlighted in green are those that can have altered and the usual up and down arrows apply.I am slightly relieved that most of the big changes have happened in tight areas of the Leaderbord so it is possible to recover very quickly.

Apologies to all concerned who’ve dropped points I’m not buying everyone a beer!

[williwycombe]

Good to see the Corinthian spirit is alive and well, fair play @wwfcblue and @railwaysteve for all the effort you put into this to make it so enjoyable.

[Commoner]

Thanks @railwaysteve - this is such a great competition and one thing it highlights is how we generally hold ourselves on the gasroom to a high standard of fairness!

Good spot @wwfcblue !

[FromeBlue]

All to play for! This is a fantastic competition and I really enjoy seeing the tables that you publish.

[OxfordBlue]

Steve, this has to be the most meticulous and professional football forum competition ever. No apology ever required.

[railwaysteve]

After the Doncaster Home Game

Many congratulations to @DevC who landed yet another scoring prediction and stays top of the Leaderboard with what now looks a bit like a 3 point lead and an unassailable goal difference. Derinite congratulations are due to @our_frank, this week’s Forecaster of the Week. who climbs to 2nd by knocking off more than twelve from his Leaderboard score with a match score of just three.

Amazingly every single person in the chasing bunch, up to and including @a40 achieved a match score which registered a reduction in their Leaderboard score. Almost without exception they can all reach the pinacle with a couple of very close predictions - as long as @DevC does not do the same!

@our_frank and new forecaster @Avntaclu were the only people to register personal bests for the season. However congratulations are due to @robin and @MindlessDrugHoover who both made sharp predictions and reached personal high spots in the table.

Triple congratulations are due to @Robin who crested with one of the large leaps up the table and also joined the prestigous sub 100 Club at the same time. Congratulations for moving up with a large leap also go to @Ryan_W_Kirkby and @glasstotallyfull .

Currently the mid table - scores from around 120 to around 100 is very congested, and it is possible to move from near the bottom of that group to the top on a single match day - bit like League One at the moment. I thought it would be interesting to look for places where someone cannot catch the person above them on the Leaderboard in a single game. This true between 2nd and 1st, although @our_frank could get within touching distance. It is true between @robin in 9th and @a40 in 8th and not again until @BSE in 30th and @Alexo in 29th, also between @Mandown in 32nd and @Glenactico in 31st. A gap of that size also exists between @James in 36th and @Ohandybaird in 35th.

As has been the case for some weeks now, many congratulations go to @Monza for the best individual prediction of the season.

Good luck to all predicting the attendance at what for sponsorship reasons is called the Car Leasing Stadium.

[railwaysteve]

After the Reading Away Game - Match 31

Lots of excitement but not not quite so much excitment on here.

Many congratulations to @DevC who didn’t score but kept a significant lead at the top.

Congratulations to Forecaster of the Week @ChipsintheAdams who with a match day score of 36 - a personal fourth best of the season - reaches third place on the Leaderboard which is a personal high spot for the season.

The second closest forecast of the match was a [93] by @Ozzie_the_Relaxed and because it was their actual 10th prediction of the season they join the main table. Because that Leaderboard Score is an average of just ten forecasts with no discards, the giant leap is into 38th place. However it is true, as it is for most people, that one close prediction can carch the person above on the Leaderboard. In @Ozzie_the_Relaxed’s case it is two peoplet hat can be caught. There are also congratulations to @Ozzie_the_Relaxed for procducing the best for your ten so far, just when it counts.

A special mention for @our_frank who actually had the third best match score with [105] and it only just missed making an impression on @DevC’s lead as a new 11th best personal prediction of the season so far.

After a match where the numbers were big and the fireworks and rivalry / lack of rivalty made them coubly difficult to predict, many congratulations are due again to @monza who retains the single best prediction of the season so far as we approach the three quarters done mark.

Happy predicting to all for the Exeter away game, the smaller numbers are going to make it easier to miss by less.

[railwaysteve]

Incorporating the Exeter Away Game - Match 32

The top of the Leaderboard remains completely unchanged - many congratulations to @DevC who remains at the pinacle with a lead over @our_frank of 109 predicted people.

Many congratulations to @Monza who retains the best single prediction of the season so far and makes a giant leap of ten places up the Leaderboard with the best prediction of the match, up from 25th to 15th, a remarkable achievement at this stage of the season. Unsurprising it takes @Monza to a personal high position in the table.

Just for my own interest and because @Monza has both the best single prediction and also the best ‘‘second best’ prediction of every one [4] , I had a look at how far off the top of the table they are at the moment. It is somewhere between 9 and 12 points - could reach the top with 4 perfect predictions. @Monza ‘s Exeter prediction is now their 5th best of their ten so realistically to be challenging at the top of the table at the end of the season, they would need five predictions of the last fourteen to be as good as this Exeter one, and probably at least a couple of them to be single digit misses.

So far as I can work out there were only 5 predictions this week that scored on here. @Monza obviously; those who were 3rd and 4th this week - @shitcagowwfc and @Half_Man_Half_Swan both moved up the Leaderboard. @Ozzie_the_Relaxed- previously the forecaster without any discards - has a new personal 8th best and made a sizeable difference to the Leaderboard score. The forecaster with the second best match score was @MindlessDrugHoover with [186] a new personal 10th best prediction, which did just enough to prevent @Monza from making a eleven place leap up the table.

Thanks for reading if you have got this far and happy predicting to all for the Stevenage home game.

[railwaysteve]

After the Home Game Against Stevenage - Match 33

Many congratulations to @DevC who stays clear at the top wiith a very tidy match score of 24

Congratulations indeed to @our_frank, this week’s Forcester of the Week , a match score of just 9, has now cut @DevC lead to 2 points (in football parlance0 and has opened a lead of 4 points to the chasing group massed behind the top two. There has been some remarkably good forecasting this season. @DevC gained his fourteenth prediction within one hudred this game and @our_frank decame the first Forecaster this season to record three predictions closer than ten.

Congratulations to @Ryan_W_Kirkby who leapt from 16th place into 9th, and the top ten as well joining the prestigious Sub 100 Club.

Amazingly nobody recorded a personal best prediction for the match, except @Blue_since_1990 with their first of the season and nobody reached a high spot on the Leaderboard.

The table is very tight in several places: @Bayo is a single predicted person behind myself,and @Barneysmith. @silverfox is a single predicted person above @Forestblue after the two of them swopped 27th and 28th places. The gap between @MindlessDrugHoover and @Monza is just two predicted people and just three predicted people separates the three forecasters - @thecatwwfc, @glasstotallyfull and @micra in 21st, 22nd and 23rd.

Finally many congratulations to @Monza who best single prediction of the season remains unshaken.

Happy predicting to all with the Burton home game. That thread should be up soon, probably without my own prediction though.

[wwfcblue]

@our_frank Quite an outstanding run in the last few games

[our_frank]

@wwfcblue

Quite an outstanding run in the last few games

Thanks, @wwfcblue. It’s been great, but I’m not sure it will be enough to hunt down @DevC. I was really struggling earlier in the season to estimate the home crowds, I think because of the new, higher STH numbers, but it’s getting better.

[DevC]

It is getting very close. If I have calculated correctly if we both get say a 25 and a 60 but nothing else below, @our_frank wins by 1 punter. If we each get one 25 and 1 62 , I win by one punter. @if @our_frank can get three or more low scores by end of season, he is very much favourite. 13 games to go of which 7 or 8 look predictable and the rest high crowds obviously harder to get close to.

[railwaysteve]

After the Burton Albion Home Game - Match 34

Although the top two on the Leaderboard both registered scores within two hundred and made the top twenty on the Match Table, neither beat their 10th best match score - @our_frank was quite close. So, many congratulations to @DevC for retaining top spot with the same gap to second place.

In third place @ChipsintheAdams did register a ‘scoring score’, joins the elite Sub 50 Club, and now has all best ten match scores under one hundred. A high thirties score could be reached with an excellent prediction next game but @DevC’s position remains just out of reach.

@Commoner demonstrates just how tightly packed the chasing group is: with a Match score of [62] and 7th place on the Match Day moving up from 6th to 4th on the Leaderboard.

Quadruple Congratulations to Forecaster of the Week @SmiroludyBlue - for a new personal best match score this season [9], a new personal position on the Leaderboard for this season [10th] , a giant leap up the table and a place in the prestigous Sub 100 Club.

To @Monza many congratulations for continuing to have the best single forecast of the season and couble congratulations for reaching a personal highspot on the Leaderboard and for joining the Sub 100 Club.

Congratulations to @Ozzie_the_Relaxed who moved up a place to reach apersonal highspot with a 13th prediction of the season, the third person to achieve this feat this match.

Congratulations to @MFHBlue who was the third person this match to become a member of the Sub 100 Club. The mid table is tight. Everyone down to @FromeBlue in 27th could burst through the doors of that particular club late on Tuesday or on Wednesday when the spreadsheet has helped me work it all out.

Double congratulations are due to @thecatwwfc, who with the second best Match Score [30] has a new personal best for the season and made a giant leap into the upper part of the Leaderboard.

Congratulations to @silverfox who also made a giant leap up the table and produced a rare thing - a tied position on the table. The Leaderboard scores of @Twizz and @silverfox are identical.

So although it can be argued that the actual attendance was a bit disappointing, the home crowd being only 100 - 200 more than for the Stevenage game despite the 15:00 kick off and better weather, lots of Forecasters did rather well at predicting it. A couple of good results in the next two away games and I could see us pushing towards a sell out next home game against Luton.

[railwaysteve]

I have had an idea for this competition in the unlikely event that we do reach the playoffs. I would welcome comments about whether or not it is a good idea.

If we reach the playoffs it might be fun to predict the attendances, even if the home game is a ticket sell out.

I would post crowd prediction threads as usual and everyone would be welcome to predict and there would be a match day table. However those in 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th on the Final Leaderboard would be competing for a final official 3rd place in a ‘playoffs’ of their own.

I Know the chasing group is quite tight and there are quite a few people within reach of the chasting group. So I thought I would ask for opinions before we get too close to the end of the season when things would look a bit more settled.

Comments welcome - and it only works if Wycombe participate in the real playoffs.

[ChipsintheAdams]

@railwaysteve

…would be competing for a final official 3rd place in a ‘playoffs’ of their own.I Know the chasing group is quite tight and there are quite a few people within reach of the chasting group. So I thought I would ask for opinions before we get too close to the end of the season when things would look a bit more settled.Comments welcome - and it only works if Wycombe participate in the real playoffs.

I had the very same thought this morning. Also I’m a little confused as I am in third place yet in your previous post @commoner is referenced as being in third

[railwaysteve]

@ChipsintheAdams

I had the very same thought morning. Also I’m a little confused as I am in third place yet in your previous post is referenced as being in third

@ChipsintheAdams - You are absolutely correct. @Commoner moved from 6th to 4th and working in haste I put their Gasroom name in the section which should have had your name as it is all about yourself.

I have just edited the post so it reads “@ChipsintheAdams “ in the bit about third place.

If yourself, as the person currently in third place, would like a post regular season attendance playoff to decide an ‘official’ third place, that would be a strong argument in favour. That is assuming Wycombe do find themselves in the playoffs. Otherwise this is just wishful thinking.

[ChipsintheAdams]

@railwaysteve

…d your name as it is all about yourself.I have just edited the post so it reads “ “ in the bit about third place.If yourself, as the person currently in third place, would like a post regular season attendance playoff to decide an ‘official’ third place, that would be a strong argument in favour. That is assuming Wycombe do find themselves in the playoffs. Otherwise this is just wishful thinking.

Well it’s strong argument if I stay in third. I am expecting to do a ‘Doddsball Wycombe’ and slide to 6th by season-end. So I may need those playoffs

[railwaysteve]

After the Barnsley Away Game - Match 35

It was an exciting week in terms of results on the pitch, but this match was quite quiet on here.

Many congratulations to @DevC and @Monza who kept positions at the top of the Leaderboard and with the best single prediction of the season respectively.

Congratulations are due to Forecaster of the Week @shitcagowwfc who recorded a new personal highspot in the table this match and also to @FromeBlue who was the only other Forecaster with a match score within one hundred - this resulted in a seven position jump up the table to 20th, and is now in the clusterwaiting outside the presigious Sub 100 Club

An honourable mention for @LDF who has now moved to the very front of that queue and as close enough to smell the breath of the doorman, any closer would be in the doorway itself.

Good luck to all predicting the Bolton away game - the thread should be up soon if it isn’t already.