Recreating this thread for your viewing pleasure.
8 Likes
In eliminating Stevenage, we have also secured the pre-1987 non-league club title, being the first to start a 3rd run. I can update this properly once the season is complete, but we will extend our wins to 14.
We should also place among the top ten ever finishes for such a club.
This is from last season, before Stevenage had secured the title.
3 Likes
That’s cool. Thanks for sharing!
2 Likes
Had some stats therapy time this afternoon. It doesn’t tell us anything we didn’t already know, but makes it easier to see.
At best, using Dodds all time stats (not latest matches) and the current league table, suggest for the final 6 we lose 1 x 1-2, draw 3 x 1-1 and win 2 x 1-0. (score 6 and concede 5) +9 points. Total points finish 84.
Using more recent form probably pushes this to 1 x 0-1, 4 x 1-1 & 1 x 1-0 (5 for, 5 against) +7 points. Total 82..
1 Like
Also, Huddersfield and Leyton Orient play each other on the last day, so it is literally impossible for us to come lower than 8th even if we lose every game.
1 Like
If things stay the same, cast your mind back to the summer, and imagine the reaction if you told someone that none of the following clubs would even make the playoffs.
Huddersfield
Bolton
Blackpool
Rotherham
Barnsley
Peterborough
2 Likes
It’s nice to see the green of good form appear again!
Also keeping a clean sheet against Stevenage, very possible, will really show how good the defence has become. Let’s just hope we score again.
1 Like
Anything less than 2 PPG from this point onwards would surely leave us with no chance of overtaking Wrexham. With our once far superior goal difference all but wiped out and our struggles in front of goal that slight advantage has gone too.
I can’t see it happening, but that’s fine. It’s the players that need to, and hopefully do, believe.
1 Like
Agreed 2 PPG is the minimum we need for 2nd, I suspect it’ll be closer to 2.5 to actually make it.
If we do hit form for 2 then I’ll be confident of our performances in the playoffs should we miss 2nd.
If we out perform Wrexham by 3 points over the last 5 games then our goal difference and goals scored will most likely win us 2nd place if tied, unless of course we end up getting thrashed in any games we lose and Wrexham score a hatful in the games they win.
Absolutely right.
To get above Wrexham the following likely needs to happen:
We win a game and Wrexham lose a game (that is a two goal swing so our overall goal difference will be a minimum four greater than Wrexham with a better goals scored).
We win two games and Wrexham draw two (we would go ahead on points but would also have a minimum four goal advantage on goal difference too).
I’d say it’s very very unlikely we get thrashed in any game. We haven’t lost lost a game by more than a goal since March 29th last year.
In fact, with the current defense, I can hardly see us conceding two in a game - it’s only happened once since the turn of the year (Rotherham away).
I think Wrexham will have to rack up a lot of goals v Bristol Rovers to finish ahead of us on GD if we’re tied on points
That’s not an easy game for Wrexham as Rovers are now in the relegation picture and might actually start playing!
1 Like
I’m not sure that’s necessarily true, our GD is only 2 better (3 with goals scored). Thankfully Wrexham aren’t exactly big scorers themselves but it’s close enough that them scoring 3 to our usual one (when winning of course) in just a couple of rounds of games would put it in their favour. Saturday alone was a 4 goal swing (a win vs a loss, I know, but you see my point).
It should go without saying that I hope I’m wrong, if the scenario even arises.
Unless Bolton come back from 2-0 down away to Barnsley to win, we are in the playoffs with four games to spare, which is simply incredible.
Reading are also highly unlikely to catch us. A draw with Northampton would leave them needing snookers on goal difference, so 5th is all but wrapped up, which would be our third highest finish of all time.
Very strange for the general temperature of the club to be so uninspiring when such things are happening!
10 Likes
It’s an incredible achievement to be guaranteed fifth place with four games to spare. Hats off to the players and Matt Bloomfield for securing all those points in our run from Sep-Nov.
Our record points tally in League One is 83 points and our record points tally in any EFL season is 84 points. Both those can be beaten over the Easter weekend.
B💙E🩵L💙I🩵E💙V🩵E
7 Likes
Managed to find time to update the old spreadsheet and worked out how to make an interesting chart from it too. We’re on good form to get 89 points at the moment, which feels achievable and would break those points records. I just hope it’s enough to get 2nd, although if not I think the form would get us through the playoffs.
2 Likes
The curves are definitely converging on a single point - which at least confirms the spreadsheet maths!
1 Like